Crosby Still Young, Next 2000 Point Hopeful (Couldn’t Fit Nash in There)

In the midst of the longest active scoring streak in the NHL, Crosby sits with 17 goals and 14 assists over Pittsburgh’s last 15 games, including 8 goals in the last three games. Crosby’s latest tear brings him to 46 points on the season which is good enough for first in the NHL, slowly spacing himself from the slumping Steven Stamkos. Sid the Kid is projected to finish the 10/11 season with 135 points, a career high for the center who is still fresh under ‘sniper status’ after surprisingly winning last year’s Rocket Richard Trophy. The figure will be the most since Lemieux achieved 161 points in 96.

Remarkably, Crosby manages these totals at the age of 23, enough to merit a small comparison to Canada’s great, Wayne Gretzky. With Crosby’s torrid scoring pace and young age, it may be plausible for him to become just the second player to reach 2000 points after Gretzky did it in 1990. Since Crosby is following a faint but similar path to the Great One, it seems reasonable enough to use Gretzky’s career pattern as a prediction for Crosby’s future. By fragmenting Gretzky’s career into four quadrants, calculating Point Per Game (PPG) totals by section, logic would suggest that the numbers could create a methodical, but loose, prediction of Crosby’s potential monumental future.

For the purposes of the prediction, I will assume that Crosby will play until he’s 40 (26/27 season) with the same amount of average games played by quadrant. Crosby’s possible future will be hypothesized by applying Gretzky’s PPG increases and decreases by quadrant, starting with Crosby’s total PPG figure from his first five seasons.

Wayne Gretzky:

Quadrant 1 – First Five Seasons:

Average Games Played: 78.2

Average Points/Season: 162 pts

Points/Game: 2.071 ppg.

Quadrant 2 – Second Five Seasons:

Average games Played: 75.4

Average Points/Season: 192 pts

Points/Game: 2.546 ppg (22.93% increase)

Quadrant 3 – Third Five Seasons:

Average Games Played: 69.6

Average Points/Season: 131.8 pts

Points/Game: 1.893 (25.64% decrease)

Quadrant 4 – Final Six Seasons:

Average Games Played: 73.8

Average Points/Season: 81.83 pts

Points/Game: 1.108 (41.46% decrease)

 

Sidney Crosby: (Projections)

Quadrant 1 – First Five Seasons:

Games Played: 371

Points: 508

Points/Game: 1.369

Quadrant 2 – Second Five Seasons:

With an increase of 22.93% PPG;

Games Played: 377

Points: 634

Quadrant 3 – Third Five Seasons:

With a decrease of 25.64% PPG;

Games Played: 348

Points: 435

Quadrant 4 – Final Seven Seasons:

With a decrease of 41.46% PPG;

Games Played: 516

Points: 378.

Over a 22 season career – one more than Gretzky – the prediction shows that Crosby will finish with 1955 points. Even assuming that Crosby manages to maintain a solid career with consistent point production and without significant injury, Crosby still falls short of the massive 2000 point obstacle. The total would put Crosby second place all time, sitting 68 points above Mark Messier (though 144 fewer games played). If Crosby could somehow manage to crack the safe that guards players from reaching extremely high season totals, the glorious feat may be obtainable. However, even with Crosby being the NHL’s only current hopeful for one of the rarest milestones in sports, the Kid’s journey to glory will be a long and arduous road. Wayne Gretzky’s career total of 2857 points somehow seems even more impressive, as he nearly reached the 3000 point barrier, never mind that lowly 2000 one…

By: Kyle Larkin

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    • tron
    • December 6th, 2010

    Another great article here. I don’t think we will ever see point totals even close to the 200’s again but Crosby does have a shot at cracking 2,000 points. Keep up the good work!!

    • Thanks I appreciate it. If someone does crack 200 in a season, I certainly hope Crosby is the one to do it

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